Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Lymphatic, blood vessel and perineural invasion identifies early-stage high-risk radically resected gastric cancer patients

The availability of different treatment options for radically resectable gastric cancer reopened the question of treatment selection and correct definition of high-risk categories. Lymphatic, blood vessel and perineural invasion (LBVI/PNI) seem to possess the necessary potential to provide useful information for the clinical management of this disease. Seven hundred and thirty-four patients with advanced gastric cancer who underwent curative gastrectomy were analysed according to the presence of LBVI/PNI. Patients were divided into two groups: group A for patients with LBVI/PNI (189 patients 26%) and group B for patients without LBVI/PNI (545 patients, 74%). The disease-free survival (DFS) for patients in group A was 32.1 months, whereas it was not reached for patients in group B (P=0.0001); the median overall survival was 45.5 months for patients in group A, whereas it was not reached for patients in group B (P=0.0001). At multivariate analysis, the presence of LBVI/PNI appeared an independent prognostic factor for DFS and OS. Our results were confirmed in subgroup analysis, separately considering stage I and early gastric cancer patients with and without LBVI/PNI. Taken together, our findings suggest the importance of LBVI/PNI in gastric cancer as it may provide additional information for identifying patients at high risk, who may be candidates for further medical treatment after or before surgery

Identifying divergent design thinking through the observable behavior of service design novices

© 2018, Springer Nature B.V. Design thinking holds the key to innovation processes, but is often difficult to detect because of its implicit nature. We undertook a study of novice designers engaged in team-based design exercises in order to explore the correlation between design thinking and designers’ physical (observable) behavior and to identify new, objective, design thinking identification methods. Our study addresses the topic by using data collection method of “think aloud” and data analysis method of “protocol analysis” along with the unconstrained concept generation environment. Collected data from the participants without service design experience were analyzed by open and selective coding. Through the research, we found correlations between physical activity and divergent thinking, and also identified physical behaviors that predict a designer’s transition to divergent thinking. We conclude that there are significant relations between designers’ design thinking and the behavioral features of their body and face. This approach opens possible new ways to undertake design process research and also design capability evaluation

mTORC1 in the Paneth cell niche couples intestinal stem cell function to calorie intake

How adult tissue stem and niche cells respond to the nutritional state of an organism is not well understood. Here we find that Paneth cells, a key constituent of the mammalian intestinal stem-cell (ISC) niche, augment stem-cell function in response to calorie restriction. Calorie restriction acts by reducing mechanistic target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1) signalling in Paneth cells, and the ISC-enhancing effects of calorie restriction can be mimicked by rapamycin. Calorie intake regulates mTORC1 in Paneth cells, but not ISCs, and forced activation of mTORC1 in Paneth cells during calorie restriction abolishes the ISC-augmenting effects of the niche. Finally, increased expression of bone stromal antigen 1 (Bst1) in Paneth cells—an ectoenzyme that produces the paracrine factor cyclic ADP ribose—mediates the effects of calorie restriction and rapamycin on ISC function. Our findings establish that mTORC1 non-cell-autonomously regulates stem-cell self-renewal, and highlight a significant role of the mammalian intestinal niche in coupling stem-cell function to organismal physiology.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (CA103866)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (CA129105)David H. Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research at MIT (Initiator Award)Ellison Medical FoundationNational Cancer Institute (U.S.) (NCI (T32CA09216) fellowship support)Academy of FinlandFoundations’ Postdoc PoolNational Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH (1F32AG032833-01A1))Jane Coffin Childs Memorial Fund for Medical Researc

The area-based social patterning of injuries among 10 to 19 year olds Changes over time in the Stockholm County

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Area-based studies of childhood injuries strongly suggest that neighborhood socio-demographic and economic circumstances impact on various – though not all – types of injuries. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the stability over time of the association between area characteristics and childhood injuries of various causes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Register-based and ecological, the study encompassed Stockholm County's 138 parishes, and considered two time periods (1993–95; 2003–05). Two indices were measured: economic deprivation and social fragmentation, and parishes were allocated to their respective quintile on each index. Data on both unintentional and intentional injuries for children (boys and girls) aged 10–14 and 15–19 respectively were gathered from the County Council's hospital inpatient register. For each period and index, gender, age and cause-specific comparisons were made to assess the rate ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) of being injured using parishes belonging to the best index level as a comparison group. A series of simple and partial Pearson correlations were also calculated to assess the independent contribution of each index.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Regardless of time period, there were rather few significant rate ratios and, when they occurred, there were both under and excess risks. For instance, in each period, boys from both age groups living in parishes with the highest levels of economic deprivation had lower rate of injury as a motor vehicle rider. Most strikingly, intentional injuries were more frequent during the second time period and in considerable excess among girls aged 15–19 from more economically deprived areas. Also, during that last period, none of the injury causes correlated significantly with the index of social fragmentation after adjustment for economic deprivation (partial correlation).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Over a ten-year period, differential economic deprivation among parishes has widened more than social fragmentation in Stockholm County. The correlation between those indices is high in both periods of time whilst the association between the levels of each index and injury rates varies depending on group of injuries or time period considered. It is of concern that intentional injuries have increased numerically and are significantly and positively correlated with economic deprivation (net of social fragmentation), in particular among girls.</p

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to assess the efficacy of topiramate in the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Topiramate might be effective in the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) because of its antikindling effect and its action in both inhibitory and excitatory neurotransmitters. Open-label studies and few controlled trials have suggested that this anticonvulsant may have therapeutic potential in PTSD. This 12-week randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial will compare the efficacy of topiramate with placebo and study the tolerability of topiramate in the treatment of PTSD.</p> <p>Methods and design</p> <p>Seventy-two adult outpatients with DSM-IV-diagnosed PTSD will be recruited from the violence program of Federal University of São Paulo Hospital (UNIFESP). After informed consent, screening, and a one week period of wash out, subjects will be randomized to either placebo or topiramate for 12 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint will be the change in the Clinician-administered PTSD scale (CAPS) total score from baseline to the final visit at 12 weeks.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The development of treatments for PTSD is challenging due to the complexity of the symptoms and psychiatric comorbidities. The selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are the mainstream treatment for PTSD, but many patients do not have a satisfactory response to antidepressants. Although there are limited clinical studies available to assess the efficacy of topiramate for PTSD, the findings of prior trials suggest this anticonvulsant may be promising in the management of these patients.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>NCT 00725920</p

Myocarditis in CD8-Depleted SIV-Infected Rhesus Macaques after Short-Term Dual Therapy with Nucleoside and Nucleotide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors

Background: Although highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has dramatically reduced the morbidity and mortality associated with HIV infection, a number of antiretroviral toxicities have been described, including myocardial toxicity resulting from the use of nucleotide and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). Current treatment guidelines recommend the use of HAART regimens containing two NRTIs for initial therapy of HIV-1 positive individuals; however, potential cardiotoxicity resulting from treatment with multiple NRTIs has not been addressed. Methodology/Principal Findings: We examined myocardial tissue from twelve CD8 lymphocyte-depleted adult rhesus macaques, including eight animals infected with simian immunodeficiency virus, four of which received combined antiretroviral therapy (CART) consisting of two NRTIs [(9-R-2-Phosphonomethoxypropyl Adenine) (PMPA) and (+/−)-beta-2′,3′-dideoxy-5-fluoro-3′-thiacytidine (RCV)] for 28 days. Multifocal infiltrates of mononuclear inflammatory cells were present in the myocardium of all macaques that received CART, but not untreated SIV-positive animals or SIV-negative controls. Macrophages were the predominant inflammatory cells within lesions, as shown by immunoreactivity for the macrophage markers Iba1 and CD68. Heart specimens from monkeys that received CART had significantly lower virus burdens than untreated animals (p<0.05), but significantly greater quantities of TNF-α mRNA than either SIV-positive untreated animals or uninfected controls (p<0.05). Interferon-γ (IFN-γ), IL-1β and CXCL11 mRNA were upregulated in heart tissue from SIV-positive monkeys, independent of antiretroviral treatment, but CXCL9 mRNA was only upregulated in heart tissue from macaques that received CART. Conclusions/Significance: These results suggest that short-term treatment with multiple NRTIs may be associated with myocarditis, and demonstrate that the CD8-depleted SIV-positive rhesus monkey is a useful model for studying the cardiotoxic effects of combined antiretroviral therapy in the setting of immunodeficiency virus infection

NKG2D expression in CD4+ T lymphocytes as a marker of senescence in the aged immune system

Human aging is characterized by changes in the immune system which have a profound impact on the T-cell compartment. These changes are more frequently found in CD8+ T cells, and there are not well-defined markers of differentiation in the CD4+ subset. Typical features of cell immunosenescence are characteristics of pathologies in which the aberrant expression of NKG2D in CD4+ T cells has been described. To evaluate a possible age-related expression of NKG2D in CD4+ T cells, we compared their percentage in peripheral blood from 100 elderly and 50 young adults. The median percentage of CD4+ NKG2D+ in elders was 5.3% (interquartile range (IR): 8.74%) versus 1.4% (IR: 1.7%) in young subjects (p < 0.3 × 10−10). CD28 expression distinguished two subsets of CD4+ NKG2D+ cells with distinct functional properties and differentiation status. CD28+ cells showed an immature phenotype associated with high frequencies of CD45RA and CD31. However, most of the NKG2D+ cells belonged to the CD28null compartment and shared their phenotypical properties. NKG2D+ cells represented a more advanced stage of maturation and exhibited greater response to CMV (5.3 ± 3.1% versus 3.4 ± 2%, p = 0.037), higher production of IFN-γ (40.56 ± 13.7% versus 24 ± 8.8%, p = 0.015), lower activation threshold and reduced TREC content. Moreover, the frequency of the CD4+ NKG2D+ subset was clearly related to the status of the T cells. Higher frequencies of the NKG2D+ subset were accompanied with a gradual decrease of NAIVE and central memory cells, but also with a higher level of more differentiated subsets of CD4+ T cells. In conclusion, CD4+ NKG2D+ represent a subset of highly differentiated T cells which characterizes the senescence of the immune system

The possible role of local air pollution in climate change in West Africa

The climate of West Africa is characterized by a sensitive monsoon system that is associated with marked natural precipitation variability. This region has been and is projected to be subject to substantial global and regional-scale changes including greenhouse-gas-induced warming and sea-level rise, land-use and land-cover change, and substantial biomass burning. We argue that more attention should be paid to rapidly increasing air pollution over the explosively growing cities of West Africa, as experiences from other regions suggest that this can alter regional climate through the influences of aerosols on clouds and radiation, and will also affect human health and food security. We need better observations and models to quantify the magnitude and characteristics of these impacts

Epicoccum nigrum P16, a Sugarcane Endophyte, Produces Antifungal Compounds and Induces Root Growth

Background: Sugarcane is one of the most important crops in Brazil, mainly because of its use in biofuel production. Recent studies have sought to determine the role of sugarcane endophytic microbial diversity in microorganism-plant interactions, and their biotechnological potential. Epicoccum nigrum is an important sugarcane endophytic fungus that has been associated with the biological control of phytopathogens, and the production of secondary metabolites. In spite of several studies carried out to define the better conditions to use E. nigrum in different crops, little is known about the establishment of an endophytic interaction, and its potential effects on plant physiology. Methodology/Principal Findings: We report an approach based on inoculation followed by re-isolation, molecular monitoring, microscopic analysis, plant growth responses to fungal colonization, and antimicrobial activity tests to study the basic aspects of the E. nigrum endophytic interaction with sugarcane, and the effects of colonization on plant physiology. The results indicate that E. nigrum was capable of increasing the root system biomass and producing compounds that inhibit the in vitro growth of sugarcane pathogens Fusarium verticillioides, Colletotrichum falcatum, Ceratocystis paradoxa, and Xanthomomas albilineans. In addition, E. nigrum preferentially colonizes the sugarcane surface and, occasionally, the endophytic environment. Conclusions/Significance: Our work demonstrates that E. nigrum has great potential for sugarcane crop application because it is capable of increasing the root system biomass and controlling pathogens. The study of the basic aspects of the interaction of E. nigrum with sugarcane demonstrated the facultative endophytism of E. nigrum and its preference for the phylloplane environment, which should be considered in future studies of biocontrol using this species. In addition, this work contributes to the knowledge of the interaction of this ubiquitous endophyte with the host plant, and also to a better use of microbial endophytes in agriculture.State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)FAPESP (State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation) [02/14143-3, 10/08286-2]Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq